Press Release: Rising Tensions in the Horn of Africa: Assessing the Risks of Regional Escalation
Over the past 72 hours, the State of Israel announced the official recognition of Somaliland. This announcement directly follows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statement dated December 27, 2025. This announcement has triggered a series of escalating tensions in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea.
Key Developments:
Security Council Reactions:
Several nations at the UN Security Council have strongly condemned this decision. Egypt, Djibouti, China, and Russia have expressed their opposition. The Djiboutian representative, during the Security Council session on December 29, 2025, highlighted the risks of destabilization in the region. French and British representatives also voiced strong concerns. At the same time, the Arab League issued a unanimous condemnation, with members such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates denouncing the announcement.
Tensions in the Arabian Gulf:
There has been a notable increase in friction between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in the Red Sea. Clashes have been reported near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a strategic point, with Saudi forces conducting an air operation to destroy vessels linked to the UAE.
Turkey-Somali Federal Government Meeting:
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met with the President of the Somali Federal Government, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, on December 30, 2025, in Ankara, to discuss enhanced military cooperation and planned oil exploration off the Somali coast in 2026. This meeting took place at 11:00 AM local time, reflecting Turkey’s intention to support Somali sovereignty amid these heightened tensions.
Iranian and Houthi Escalation:
The Houthis, backed by Iran, have intensified their threats against Somaliland. This adds to the existing instability, worsened by al-Shabaab activities in Somalia and internal conflicts in Ethiopia with Eritrea and Sudan.
Russian and Chinese Stances:
Both Russia and China condemned Israel’s decision, viewing it as a destabilizing factor in the region. The Russian envoy to the UN, on December 30, 2025, highlighted global maritime security risks, while the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on the same day, calling for de-escalation.
Wider Regional Conflicts:
This announcement has further exacerbated the already fragile situation, involving the Ethiopian dam dispute with Egypt and the ongoing conflict in Sudan. Thus, the rapid series of events following Israel’s recognition of Somaliland has significantly intensified tensions in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. The convergence of these factors.
In particular, in 2020, I wrote in my book "My Life for Somalia" about what is happening now, hence the importance of taking into consideration the risks I had already warned about at the time.
